Brewers vs Reds +100
Wade Miley is making his season debut for the Brewers and the young flamethrower Luis Castillo is pitching for the Reds. Wade Miley does not have a lot of experience against the current Reds lineup (36 At-bats), so the unfamiliarity could play into his hands. If he struggles to keep the ball low in the zone on a day like today against this Reds lineup with the wind blowing out, the Reds are going to have a field day. Castillo has struggled this season posting a 7.85 ERA with a 1-3 record to this point. Not great numbers for someone the Reds thought was going to be the next big thing, but he has had some success against the Brewers. This is a very small sample size (63 At-bats), but he’s held the Brewers to a .175 batting average. Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia have been the biggest issues for Castillo as he has allowed them 3 and 4 hits respectively. I’m not worried about Shaw today because the wind is going to be blowing out to Left Field and Shaw usually pulls the ball and today it’ll be going into the wind. The key to the game for both pitchers is going to be to keep the ball low in the zone, but change the eye level of the hitters if need be. Great American Ball Park isn’t the most pitcher friendly field, so taking the over may not be a bad idea, especially when we don’t know how Wade Miley is going to perform. I’ll be watching Joey Votto and Ryan Braun to see how they matchup with pitchers that both should be able to hit pretty well.
Braves +150 vs Mets
I did not really like what I saw from the Mets offense yesterday. A 20 year old made his MLB debut against them and they looked lost at the plate after a 3 run first inning for the Braves. Jacob deGrom will get the ball for the Mets and Sean Newcomb for the Braves. deGrom has had success against the Braves in his career, but this is a different Braves team this year. They come out and try to jump on teams as early as possible and then use their pitching to navigate through and carve up opposing lineups. They aren’t a great team yet, but they’ll definitely get there in the next couple of years. Freddie Freeman has the most hits against deGrom for the Braves, but he also has the most strikeouts. Freeman looked like he was seeing the ball well off of Thor last night, so I expect more of the same from him tonight. Ozzie Albies has not been able to get a hit against deGrom, but he’s become more patient in the leadoff spot and has been on a tear early in the season. I think the Mets are a team that get down on themselves very quickly (the Cubs do it too) and anyone that has played a sport before knows once your team loses hope, it’s very hard to regain any sort of drive to win the game. If the Braves are able to get out to an early lead like they did last night, they should be able to steal another one on the road against a division rival.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks -120
Zack Godley has been two different pitchers against the Dodgers this season. He pitched lights out at home and couldn’t miss a bat on the road. The Diamondbacks have beat up on the Dodgers this season and have just been very good in general. They have yet to lose a game to LA at home, and I think the streak will continue tonight. The Dodgers are missing key pieces to their lineup (Justin Turner and Corey Seager) and have yet to hit their stride. Lucky for them, it’s still early in the season and they have time to get their act together, but it’s going to be tough without Corey Seager. Godley allowed 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings pitched in his matchup with the Dodgers at Chase Field this season and will look to duplicate that tonight. Godley will have to be on top of his game because Hyun Jin-Ryu is on the hill for the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks forced him out of the game after just 3.2 innings the first time around (exactly one month ago). The D-Backs bats have continued to be hot in the early part of the season and I expect that to continue against the Dodgers tonight.
Vegas Golden Knights +110
Boston Bruins -1.5 +215
Pictured: Reds’ First Basemen Joey Votto